How likely is an Australian Open warm-up tournament winner to win the Melbourne Grand Slam?

In life and in tennis we like to recognize some patterns and predict future based on current facts. Our stats analyst Omair made sure to present us the historical patterns of the Australian part of the season and the chances of an Australian Open tune-up tournament winner to lift the trophy at the Australian Open. You'll see that the Sydney winner is the most likely, which was the case this year with Victoria Azarenka.

A few days before the Australian Open I found some interesting things regarding the winners of the Australian Open warm-up events and their performance at the Australian Open that year. There are four warm-up events which pave the way for the players to get into some form for the first Grand Slam of the year:

  • Brisbane
  • Auckland
  • Hobart
  • Sydney

Let's have a look at how well this year's winners performed at the Australian Open and how they compared to the winners of previous years and their performances at the Australian Open that year. Please note that for this article I used the results of Sydney and Auckland from 1988 onwards, since it was from 1988 that all the players played from the first round of the 128 player draw for the Grand Slam.

BRISBANE

  • Best Australian Open result in the respective year: quarterfinals
  • 2012: Kaia Kanepi won Brisbane and lost in the second round of the Australian Open

The Brisbane tournament started way back in 1997, and was known as Gold Coast back then. The name of the tournament was changed in 2009 to the Brisbane International. This year the Brisbane event went Premier. The first ever winner of the tournament back in 1997 was Elena Likhovtseva who defeated Ai Sugiyama in the final. Elena Likhovtseva could not carry on the momentum to the Australian Open and lost in the first round, while Sugiyama lost in the second round of the Australian Open that year.

The best result a Brisbane winner so far had at the Australian Open was a quarterfinal showing. Three players achieved that feat. Venus Williams was the first Brisbane player to reach the Australian Open quarterfinal back in 2002 when she won the Brisbane event. Venus lost to 8th-seeded Monica Seles in three sets. Patty Schnyder in 2005 and Petra Kvitova in 2011 followed in the footsteps of Venus Willaims and went on to reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open after winning the event in the respective years. Schnyder lost in three sets to 19th-seeded Nathalie Dechy, while Kvitova lost in straight sets to second-seeded Vera Zvonareva.

Kaia Kanepi won the Brisbane event this year. Based on the history of the Brisbane winners and their performance at the Australian Open, Kanepi's chances of making it out the second round were 67%.

Twice in the tournament's 15-year history has the Brisbane winner lost in the second round, Kanepi with her second round showing this year made it thrice in the 16-year history of the tournament. Many dubbed Kanepi as the dark horse for the Australian Open after her strong showing at the Brisbane event, however, Kanepi could not carry that momentum and fell victim of Ekaterina Makarova, who would go on to crush Serena Williams, five-time Australian Open champion, in the fourth round.

Brisbane winner has yet to move beyond the quarterfinal stage of the Australian Open, and with the event going Premier this year, this statistic will for sure change in the years to come. Although, I had hoped that this statistic will change this year since the field at Brisbane was very strong with the likes of Kim Clijsters, Serena Williams, Samantha Stosur.

AUCKLAND

Tennis Score Tracker iPhone application

A team of programmers made Tennis Score Tracker iPhone app to help tennis players, coaches, referees and spectators follow tennis scores via their mobile phones. Feel free to check it out and share your thoughts in the comments below. 

Would you like to keep track of your tennis match scores? How about sending match results by email or text message? Look no further than the Tennis Score Tracker!

Tennis Score Tracker is a mobile application for the iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch. Players, coaches, and observers can keep score of tennis matches, and send match scores at any time via email or text message. What makes this app unique is that tennis players can keep score of tennis matches while playing, updating match scores during changeovers.

Keeping score in tennis is very simple using this app. In just a few taps the match timer starts and scoring begins. If playing a tennis match users can set the score mode to game-by-game so that the score is updated during changeovers. If observing a tennis match users can set the score mode to point-by-point, scoring matches in the standard way. Scores can be sent via email or text message, or posted to Facebook. Matches can be suspended for later play if needed. A player roster, with details such as notes and player ratings, integrates with your existing contacts as an option.

Locations of tennis matches can be displayed in a map view so that over time users can see where matches were played, and to view previous matches based on location. Locations are displayed during match play based on location name, coordinates as latitude and longitude, or coordinates as degrees, minutes, and seconds, selectable by the user.

Features:

  • Score several match types (singles, doubles, Australian, Canadian)
  • Game-by-game scoring for players
  • Point-by-point scoring for observers
  • Post match scores to Facebook
  • Send text or email with scores to players
  • View historical match data
  • Ability to suspend matches during play
  • Supports Pro sets (for junior tournaments)
  • Supports a variety of tiebreaks
  • Edit historical matches or matches during play
  • Match timer keeps track of match time
  • Choose from one, three, or five sets
  • Stores player detail with ratings, handedness, etc.

Device Requirements:

  • Compatible with iPhone, iPod touch, and iPad
  • Requires iOS 4.2 or later
  • 3.4 Mb

Languages Supported:

  • English, French, Japanese, Spanish, Simplified Chinese

Caroline Wozniacki already dumps Ricardo Sanchez

In early December 2011, Ricardo Sanchez was super excited to start working with Caroline Wozniacki, but the cooperation has already come to an end and all it will be remembered for is Wozniacki's failure to win her first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open and her actual fall to No.4 in the rankings following the quarterfinal loss at the tournament, after reigning the top spot for most of the time since October 2010.

The cause of the split is that the new coach couldn't find his way in the confines of the already established system of Wozniacki and her father Piotr. In simple words, Piotr had his own way of coaching and Ricardo was supposed to adapt to it, rather than to install his way of work. The two systems clashed, the outcome was that Caroline was confused and Piotr asked Ricardo to leave. (photo: © Neal Trousdale)

Omair's take on Azarenka's victory over Sharapova in the Australian Open final

Today is a big day for women's tennis, as we have a new number one – Victoria Azarenka. The Belarusian dethroned Caroline Wozniacki from the top position by winning her first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open over the weekend. Let's see the numbers behind Azarenka's 6-3 6-0 victory over Maria Sharapova in the Melbourne final. Thanks, Omair, for contributing another statistical analysis to Women's Tennis Blog.

When Maria Sharapova walked on the Centre Court at Wimbledom last year, she intended to complete her comeback from shoulder injury by winning the tournament that she had won back in 2004 at the age of 17. However, Petra Kvitova had other plans. Sharapova ended up losing the Wimbledon final and hence a chance to complete her comeback. In the Australian Open final, as Sharapova walked onto the Rod Laver Arena, she knew she had another chance to complete her comeback. Last year at Centre Court it was against young gun Kvitova, and this year at Rod Laver Arena it was against another youngster, Azarenka.

Read more »

Azarenka wins first Grand Slam title and No.1 ranking, big day for Belarus

Victoria Azarenka blew three-time Grand Slam champion Maria Sharapova off the Rod Laver Arena 6-3 6-0 to win her maiden major, obtain the No.1 position in the WTA rankings, overtaking Caroline Wozniacki who's reigned the spot pretty much for two years, and become the first Belarusian Grand Slam titlists and No.1 player in singles.

Playing her first Grand Slam final, the third-seeded Azarenka started nervously by dropping serve in the first game of the match and finding herself 0-2 0-30 down. But from then on, she started playing aggressively, moving Sharapova around and neutralizing her power. From 3-3 in the first set, the match belonged only to Azarenka. 

If you look at the stats, Azarenka was drastically better than her fourth-seeded opponent in too many departments:

  • Azarenka committed 12 unforced errors to Sharapova's 30
  • Azarenka won 53% on second serve, compared to Sharapova's 18%
  • Azarenka had 60% of receiving points won, while Sharapova won only 37%
  • Azarenka converted 71% of break points, Sharapova only 25%
  • Azarenka won 88% of net approaches, Sharapova more than twice less, 43%
If you check out our preview of the final you can compare how they fared coming into the match and what each of them had to win or lose.
Read more »

Azarenka or Sharapova, who will win the Melbourne final?

Our lucrative and highly professional contributor, Omair, prepared an analysis of the last singles match in the women's draw at the Australian Open, the final between Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova. Enjoy the article and share your input in the comments!

Australian Open women's championship match will see two "ria's" facing each other, each trying to outgrunt the other. It will be one of the noisiest women's finals Australian Open has ever had, since both Maria and Victoria shriek loudly. My advice to the people intending to go and watch the match would be to take ear plugs with you or you might get your ears hurt. Ok enough of joking, let's see what we have in store for the final.

Seeing the form both players are taking into the final, it promises to be a great match. Both players have lost just two sets so far in the tournament, both losing one set in the quarterfinals and one in the semis. What is more interesting is that they both lost the same sets. Maria lost the first set in her quarterfinal against Sabine Lisicki, as did Azarenka against Radwanska. Maria lost the second set in her semifinal against Kvitova, as did Azarenka against Clijsters.

Both have not lost a match this year. Azarenka winning Sydney and carrying that momentum to the Australian Open, while Sharapova kick started her 2012 campaign at the Australian Open. Who will keep her winning streak intact in the final? Will it be Maria or Victoria? Read more »

Azarenka shows emotional maturity against Clijsters and advances to first Grand Slam final

Having reviewed the semifinal between Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova, our guest poster Omair is now moving on to the analysis of Victoria Azarenka's 6-4 1-6 6-3 win over Kim Clijsters to reach her first Grand Slam final.

Everyone had been criticizing the top players for their inconsistency and inability to dig deep through the tournament draws, but with the three of the top four seeds making it to the Australian Open final, along with Kim Clijsters, nobody can doubt the consistency of the top players now.

None of us could have asked for a better semifinal line-up, and the semifinals lived up to their expectations, both the matches producing some jaw-dropping tennis, intense rallies, seemingly impossible shots from players. There were momentum swings in both matches, but overall the quality of tennis was very high and they were worth watching.

Azarenka and Clijsters were the first to walk on to the Rod Laver Arena today to begin the battle for a spot in the championship match. Azarenka moved Clijsters all over the court testing her ankle in the first set, while taking the set 6-4. Clijsters could not find a way into Azarenka's game and by the end of the first set when she got into Azarenka's game it was too late since Azarenka took the set. Read more »

Mighty fighter Sharapova dismisses new power tower Kvitova in Australian Open semis

Omair, our favorite and most productive guest poster this Australian Open, is not slowing down and now he followed up his pre-match analysis of the semifinal between Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova with a post-match review of Sharapova's 6-2 3-6 6-4 victory.

Both Kvitova and Sharapova took the Rod Laver Arena today knowing that they both had a lot on the line: the No.1 ranking and a spot in the championship match. Kvitova had an edge coming into the match, for it was Kvitova who beat Sharapova on Center Court at Wimbledon in the title match last year in straight sets. Sharapova had revenge on her mind, and revenge was what she got at the end, along with a chance to grab the top spot and a chance to earn her second Australian Open trophy and fourth Grand Slam title.

Sharapova started the match on fire, walking away with the first set 6-2, and it seemed that Kvitova would bow out in straight sets. But we have seen that Kvitova is a fighter and she comes back to win matches. It was Kvitova's turn to show why she is world No.2 as she took the second set to send the match to a decisive third set. Again, it was Kvitova who looked sharper and on a roll, but Sharapova hung in there long enough to let the nerves get the better of Kvitova. Kvitova had a lot of chances to move ahead in the third set, but she just could not capitalise on them. In the end nerves got the better of Kvitova as her forehand sailed long to hand Sharapova the game, set and match. Both played some jaw-dropping tennis throughout the match. Read more »


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