How likely is an Australian Open warm-up tournament winner to win the Melbourne Grand Slam?

In life and in tennis we like to recognize some patterns and predict future based on current facts. Our stats analyst Omair made sure to present us the historical patterns of the Australian part of the season and the chances of an Australian Open tune-up tournament winner to lift the trophy at the Australian Open. You'll see that the Sydney winner is the most likely, which was the case this year with Victoria Azarenka.

A few days before the Australian Open I found some interesting things regarding the winners of the Australian Open warm-up events and their performance at the Australian Open that year. There are four warm-up events which pave the way for the players to get into some form for the first Grand Slam of the year:

  • Brisbane
  • Auckland
  • Hobart
  • Sydney

Let's have a look at how well this year's winners performed at the Australian Open and how they compared to the winners of previous years and their performances at the Australian Open that year. Please note that for this article I used the results of Sydney and Auckland from 1988 onwards, since it was from 1988 that all the players played from the first round of the 128 player draw for the Grand Slam.

BRISBANE

  • Best Australian Open result in the respective year: quarterfinals
  • 2012: Kaia Kanepi won Brisbane and lost in the second round of the Australian Open

The Brisbane tournament started way back in 1997, and was known as Gold Coast back then. The name of the tournament was changed in 2009 to the Brisbane International. This year the Brisbane event went Premier. The first ever winner of the tournament back in 1997 was Elena Likhovtseva who defeated Ai Sugiyama in the final. Elena Likhovtseva could not carry on the momentum to the Australian Open and lost in the first round, while Sugiyama lost in the second round of the Australian Open that year.

The best result a Brisbane winner so far had at the Australian Open was a quarterfinal showing. Three players achieved that feat. Venus Williams was the first Brisbane player to reach the Australian Open quarterfinal back in 2002 when she won the Brisbane event. Venus lost to 8th-seeded Monica Seles in three sets. Patty Schnyder in 2005 and Petra Kvitova in 2011 followed in the footsteps of Venus Willaims and went on to reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open after winning the event in the respective years. Schnyder lost in three sets to 19th-seeded Nathalie Dechy, while Kvitova lost in straight sets to second-seeded Vera Zvonareva.

Kaia Kanepi won the Brisbane event this year. Based on the history of the Brisbane winners and their performance at the Australian Open, Kanepi's chances of making it out the second round were 67%.

Twice in the tournament's 15-year history has the Brisbane winner lost in the second round, Kanepi with her second round showing this year made it thrice in the 16-year history of the tournament. Many dubbed Kanepi as the dark horse for the Australian Open after her strong showing at the Brisbane event, however, Kanepi could not carry that momentum and fell victim of Ekaterina Makarova, who would go on to crush Serena Williams, five-time Australian Open champion, in the fourth round.

Brisbane winner has yet to move beyond the quarterfinal stage of the Australian Open, and with the event going Premier this year, this statistic will for sure change in the years to come. Although, I had hoped that this statistic will change this year since the field at Brisbane was very strong with the likes of Kim Clijsters, Serena Williams, Samantha Stosur.

AUCKLAND

German qualifier Mona Barthel wins Moorilla Hobart International title

Seeds number two, four and five, one of them defending champion Jarmila Gajdosova, were all the victims of Mona Barthel during her run to her first career final at the Moorilla Hobart International. But the amazing German didn't leave the city without completing the last touch and finished the tournament by upsetting top seed Yanina Wickmayer with an impressive 6-1 6-2 score.

Being a qualifier, Barthel compiled eight match wins on her title quest. The defeated names include: Valeria Savinykh, Olga Govortsova, Nina Bratchikova, Romina Oprandi, Anabel Medina Garrigues, Jarmila Gajdosova, Angelique Kerber, and finally Yanina Wickmayer. The last qualifier to win a WTA title before Barthel was Tamira Paszek at Quebec City in September 2010.

The world No.64 Barthel, who came to Hobart with only six main draw victories in her life, is projected to make a Top 50 debut.

Prior to Hobart, Barthel played Auckland where she defeated former world No.4 Jelena Dokic in the first round and lost to Sabine Lisicki 7-6(3) 3-6 6-3 afterwards. The upcoming Australian Open will be her first main draw appearance at the event and her opening opponent will be Anne Keothavong. (photo via Moorilla Hobart International)

Just as Chakvetadze revives career, after two matches injury strikes

We were all happy to welcome Anna Chakvetadze back on the tennis courts this week at the Hobart International, and seeing her win two matches, her first victories since April, made us root for her even more. However, the Russian has joined dozens of WTA players that are already injured this early January and retired from her quarterfinal against Shahar Peer with a severe left leg cramp.

After ousting third seed Monica Niculescu 6-0 6-4 and Tsvetana Pironkova 6-3 6-2, the 24-year-old Chakvetadze won the first set 6-4 against the sixth-seeded Peer, but even during that set she started experiencing the injury. Chakvetadze then lost the second set and retired after dropping serve initially in the decider at the score 4-6 6-4 1-0.

Chakvetadze was once No.5 in the women's standings but the horrifying robbery, string of injuries and illness dragged her down to her current 234th position in the WTA rankings. Hobart was the Russian’s first tournament since Wimbledon in June. During her golden career year of 2007, Chakvetadze won four WTA titles, including Hobart, and played the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. (photo: © Neal Trousdale)

Sexiest polititian Anna Chakvetadze to play Hobart

Anna Chakvetadze has recently become engaged in politics and she’s already been voted the sexiest woman in the field. On top of that, we’re receiving good news regarding her tennis career – the 24-year-old will play the Moorilla Hobart International tournament in January 2012.

Russian internet users were asked to vote for a Russian politician they find the sexiest and Chakvetadze took the honor, beating some all-time favorites on the way.

When news of Chakvetadze's political engagement surfaced in September it made us question her further interest in tennis, as she already hadn’t played much during the 2011 season due to health problems. However, Chakvetadze is returning to tennis in a month, at the Hobart tournament she won in 2007, the brightest year of her career, when she reached her career-high ranking of No.5 and won four WTA titles.

In the entire 2011 the Russian played just 14 matches and won only six of them. She's currently No.231.

Additional info: On December 4 there were State Duma elections and Chakvetadze's Right Cause Party did not cross the 5% election threshold for a seat in the Parliament. (photo: Ralf Reinecke)

Alona Bondarenko wins Moorilla Hobart International

Alona Bondarenko wins Moorilla Hobart International

Ukraine’s Alona Bondarenko claimed her second career WTA title by beating Israel’s Shahar Peer 6-2 6-4 in the final of the Moorilla Hobart International.

Despite dropping serve twice in the second set Bondarenko won her first title since Luxembourg in 2006.

Peer wasn’t satisfied with her performance, saying she couldn’t find her rhythm throughout the match. Last year Peer won back-to-back titles in Guangzhou and Tashkent, after a three-year drought.

Bondarenko is seeded 31st and Peer 29th at the Australian Open which starts on Monday. (photo via Sony Ericsson WTA Tour)

Jelena Dokic to play Moorilla Hobart International

Jelena Dokic

Jelena Dokic will warm-up for the 2010 Australian Open, hopefully equally successful for her as the last one, at the January 8-16 Moorilla Hobart International.

At the 2009 Australian Open the former world No.4 reached the quarterfinals as a wildcard and 187th-ranked player, defeating three seeded players on the way. Since that unprecedented success Dokic hasn't made such major headlines concerning her on-court results, but she did win two ITF tournaments, in Athens (Greece) in September and Poitiers (France) in October.

The 26-year-old Dokic is currently ranked 57th. (source: Reuters, photo: Ralf Reinecke)

Petra Kvitova wins Moorilla Hobart International for first WTA title

Petra Kvitova wins Hobart International for first WTA titleCzech Petra Kvitova made her first WTA final a winning one, beating countrywoman Iveta Benesova 7-5 6-1 at the Moorilla Hobart International.

The 18-year-old Kvitova and the 25-year-old Benesova are close friends, Fed Cup teammates, they have the same coach, and they even shared a room during the Hobart tournament.

The world No.49 Kvitova broke Benesova's serve twice to win the first set, before powering away from her more experienced rival in the second set.

The 2009 Hobart International final was the first all-Czech WTA final since 2005. (sources: CBS Sports, photo via Moorilla Hobart International)

Flavia Pennetta upset, no seeds left in Hobart

Flavia PennettaTop seed Flavia Pennetta was defeated in the second round of the Moorilla Hobart International, along with fourth seed Zheng Jie and seventh seed Alona Bondarenko, which leaves the tournament’s quarterfinals without seeded players.

The world No.13 Pennetta was upset by No.57-ranked Magdalena Rybarikova 7-5 6-3, who scored her first Top 20 win.

Earlier in the day, the Chinese No.1 Zheng lost to Gisela Dulko 6-3 6-3, while the Ukrainian No.1 Bondarenko lost to Petra Kvitova 6-2 6-1.

Other seeds at the Moorilla Hobart International were all defeated in the first round already, and they were No.2 seed Patty Schnyder, No.3 seed Anna Chakvetadze, No.5 seed Agnes Szavay, No.6 seed Aleksandra Wozniak and No.8 seed Tamarine Tanasugarn. (photo by Dima Korotayev/Epsilon/Getty Images via Sony Ericsson WTA Tour)

Anna Chakvetadze upset in Hobart, seeds falling

Anna ChakvetadzeThree seeds fell on the second day of the Moorilla Hobart International, and most notably No.3 seed Anna Chakvetadze.

The world No.18 Chakvetadze was up in the third set, but Carla Suarez Navarro eventually beat her 7-6(5) 1-6 7-5 in the first round. Suarez Navarro became better known at Roland Garros last May when she reached the quarterfinals as a qualifier. Her win over Chakvetadze is her best career victory.

Chakvetadze was playing her first Sony Ericsson WTA Tour event of the season. In 2008, the Russian lost six of her last eight matches and fell from the Top 10 to where she is now.

Other seeds sent packing were No.5 seed Agnes Szavay, who was defeated by Anne Keothavong 6-3 7-5, and No.6 seed Aleksandra Wozniak, who saved seven match points in the second set but eventually lost to Polish qualifier Urszula Radwanska 3-6 7-6(3) 7-5. (source: Sony Ericsson WTA Tour, photo: annachakvetadze.com)

Patty Schnyder upset at Moorilla Hobart International

Patty Schnyder

Unseeded world No.44 Tsvetana Pironkova of Bulgaria has ended Patty Schnyder’s hopes of a second title at the Moorilla Hobart International, defeating the Swiss second seed 6-2 6-4 in the first round.

"To beat the number 14 is a big win, I've only had three or four top 20 wins so this is a big win for me," Pironkova said.

Eighth seed Tamarine Tanasugarn also lost in the first round, being defeated by Czech Iveta Benesova 7-5 7-5. Surviving a scare was seventh seed Alona Bondarenko, who overcame Romania's Monica Niculescu 6-4 2-6 6-2. (source: Reuters, photo: Tennis Channel)


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