How likely is an Australian Open warm-up tournament winner to win the Melbourne Grand Slam?

In life and in tennis we like to recognize some patterns and predict future based on current facts. Our stats analyst Omair made sure to present us the historical patterns of the Australian part of the season and the chances of an Australian Open tune-up tournament winner to lift the trophy at the Australian Open. You'll see that the Sydney winner is the most likely, which was the case this year with Victoria Azarenka.

A few days before the Australian Open I found some interesting things regarding the winners of the Australian Open warm-up events and their performance at the Australian Open that year. There are four warm-up events which pave the way for the players to get into some form for the first Grand Slam of the year:

  • Brisbane
  • Auckland
  • Hobart
  • Sydney

Let's have a look at how well this year's winners performed at the Australian Open and how they compared to the winners of previous years and their performances at the Australian Open that year. Please note that for this article I used the results of Sydney and Auckland from 1988 onwards, since it was from 1988 that all the players played from the first round of the 128 player draw for the Grand Slam.

BRISBANE

  • Best Australian Open result in the respective year: quarterfinals
  • 2012: Kaia Kanepi won Brisbane and lost in the second round of the Australian Open

The Brisbane tournament started way back in 1997, and was known as Gold Coast back then. The name of the tournament was changed in 2009 to the Brisbane International. This year the Brisbane event went Premier. The first ever winner of the tournament back in 1997 was Elena Likhovtseva who defeated Ai Sugiyama in the final. Elena Likhovtseva could not carry on the momentum to the Australian Open and lost in the first round, while Sugiyama lost in the second round of the Australian Open that year.

The best result a Brisbane winner so far had at the Australian Open was a quarterfinal showing. Three players achieved that feat. Venus Williams was the first Brisbane player to reach the Australian Open quarterfinal back in 2002 when she won the Brisbane event. Venus lost to 8th-seeded Monica Seles in three sets. Patty Schnyder in 2005 and Petra Kvitova in 2011 followed in the footsteps of Venus Willaims and went on to reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open after winning the event in the respective years. Schnyder lost in three sets to 19th-seeded Nathalie Dechy, while Kvitova lost in straight sets to second-seeded Vera Zvonareva.

Kaia Kanepi won the Brisbane event this year. Based on the history of the Brisbane winners and their performance at the Australian Open, Kanepi's chances of making it out the second round were 67%.

Twice in the tournament's 15-year history has the Brisbane winner lost in the second round, Kanepi with her second round showing this year made it thrice in the 16-year history of the tournament. Many dubbed Kanepi as the dark horse for the Australian Open after her strong showing at the Brisbane event, however, Kanepi could not carry that momentum and fell victim of Ekaterina Makarova, who would go on to crush Serena Williams, five-time Australian Open champion, in the fourth round.

Brisbane winner has yet to move beyond the quarterfinal stage of the Australian Open, and with the event going Premier this year, this statistic will for sure change in the years to come. Although, I had hoped that this statistic will change this year since the field at Brisbane was very strong with the likes of Kim Clijsters, Serena Williams, Samantha Stosur.

AUCKLAND

Zheng wins Auckland as Pennetta adds her name to the injured players list

At the ASB Classic in Auckland, world No.34 Zheng Jie won her first title since 2006, but the final match was an unfinished battle, as her opponent Flavia Pennetta retired at 2-6 6-3 2-0 with a low back injury. We're only a week into the tennis season, and the number of WTA players injured or ill is close to ten.

In the first round Zheng defeated Ayumi Morita, in the second eighth seeded Monica Niculescu, in the quarterfinals Lucie Hradecka, then third seed Svetlana Kuznetsova for the first time in their seven meetings, and finally Pennetta.

Zheng's first title came in Hobart in 2005, and since winning Estoril and Stockholm in 2006 she hasn't clinched any titles, even though she played two Grand Slam semifinals – at Wimbledon 2008 and Australian Open 2010.

Regarding Pennetta's injury, she started feeling it at 4-2 in the first set and an MRI scan will reveal how serious it is. (photo via ASB Classic)

Li Na bungee jumping

World No.17 Li Na went bungee jumping for the first time during this month’s ASB Classic in New Zealand and I thought it would be nice to share the video clip, as the Chinese is a player to watch at the moment.

I’m wishing Li Na to jump into the Australian Open final, Serena’s years are odd ones anyway. The two are facing each other in a few hours. Serena has a 3-1 record against Li. They faced each other at the Australian Open once, and although it was four years ago we can mention that Serena won, but in three sets.

Kim Clijsters wins Brisbane International, Yanina Wickmayer victorious at ASB Classic

Women's Tennis Blog is back from vacation. I spent more than two wonderful weeks in China and now it's time to resume posting. Thank you all for being so supportive and not minding the long break without women's tennis news here.

First of all, I would use this opportunity to once again thank all of you for voting for Women's Tennis Blog in 2009 Baseline Awards, as thanks to you my blog won the in the Best Tennis Blog category.

Secondly, I missed quite a few tennis events and stories during my time off, and I would like to do a little wrap-up of what happened while I was away. The Brisbane International and the ASB Classic are over and here's what happened there.

Kim Clijsters beats Justine Henin in Brisbane International final

Brisbane saw an all-Belgian epic final, with Kim Clijsters defeating Justine Henin 6-3 4-6 7-6(6). En route to victory Clijsters saved two match points and wasted three.

Just after the Brisbane final, Henin withdrew from the Sydney International because of the left leg injury sustained in that title match. Henin wanted to make sure she was healthy for the upcoming Australian Open.

Yanina Wickmayer wins ASB Classic in Auckland

The other WTA tournament I skipped to cover was the ASB Classic in Auckland. The titlist at the event was Yanina Wickmayer who defeated top seed Flavia Pennetta 6-3 6-2 in the final. The victory was the best moment of Wickmayer’s career as she entered the Auckland draw after a court overturned a year's ban imposed by the Belgian doping authority.

The most exciting off-court piece of news is that Nike signed an eight-year, $70-million endorsement deal with Maria Sharapova. In addition, the Russian will be getting a percentage of sales from the line she'll help develop. Wow! And by the way, Sharapova beat Venus Williams 6-3 6-4 at an exhibition event in Thailand.

Feel free to mention in the comments some stories that I missed to write about that you find interesting. I would love you to enrich this post by your links and perspective on the past two weeks. (photos via Sony Ericsson WTA Tour)

Elena Dementieva wins ASB Classic for 12th singles title

Elena Dementieva wins ASB Classic title in AucklandElena Dementieva beat fellow Russian Elena Vesnina 6-4 6-1 at the ASB Classic in Auckland to win her first title of 2009, and 12th in her career.

The top-seeded Dementieva had a slow start in her 25th Sony Ericsson WTA Tour singles final. The unseeded Vesnina broke Dementieva in the third game of the match and built triple break point in the fifth game, sitting on the verge of a 4-1 lead. But the more experienced Dementieva won five of the next six games, stole the first set from Vesnina, and then cruised through the second set.

Dementieva didn’t drop a single set en route to the trophy, although in her first match of the week against Chan Yung-Jan she did trail 5-1 in the first set.

This week in Auckland, the world No.76 Vesnina, who was playing her first singles final, scored her seventh career win over a Top 20 player, it was against Caroline Wozniacki, and surpassed $1 million in career prize money. (source: Sony Ericsson WTA Tour)

All-Russian final at the ASB Classic, Elena Dementieva vs. Elena Vesnina

Elena DementievaElena Vesnina

The final of the ASB Classic in Auckland will feature two Russians and two Elenas. It will be the 17th all-Russian singles final in Tour history. Elena Dementieva played eight of the previous 16, while Elena Vesnina appears in a singles final for the first time.

Top-seeded Dementieva advanced to the title match defeating last year's runner-up Aravane Rezai 6-2 6-2 in just over an hour. The other semifinal was a much tighter contest as unseeded players Vesnina and Anne Keothavong went toe-to-toe for just under three hours. Vesnina eventually won 67(3) 61 75.

The Auckland final will be only the second career meeting of Dementieva and Vesnina. Their first encounter was in 2006 and Dementieva won it 61 46 64. (source: Sony Ericsson WTA Tour, photos: vesnina-elena.com, Tennis Channel)

Nadia Petrova in hospital because of viral meningitis

Nadia Petrova

World No.11 Nadia Petrova has been hospitalized with viral meningitis, and won’t play the ASB Classic in New Zealand where she was supposed to start the 2009 tennis season.

"It’s a shame Nadia will not be coming, I know she was looking forward to playing the ASB Classic, but in this situation she is obviously in need of medical care and our thoughts go out to her," says ASB Classic tournament director Brenda Perry.

Besides the ASB Classic, Petrova might miss some other scheduled tournaments in Australia too.

In 2007, Petrova won two titles: Cincinnati and Quebec City. (source: On the Baseline, photo: Sony Ericsson WTA Tour)

Lindsay Davenport wins ASB Classic in Auckland

Lindsay Davenport with her son Jagger and the ASB Classic trophyLindsay Davenport overcame Aravane Rezai in just 51 minutes to win ASB Classic in Auckland, New Zealand, her third title in four tournaments played since her comeback. The final score was 6-2 6-2.

The American returned to action in September after a year out to have her first child, son Jagger, and has since seen nothing but success winning 18 of her 19 matches, and adding titles from the Commonwealth Bank Tennis Classic, Bell Challenge, and now ASB Classic to her already impressive resume.

The former world number one, who was unseeded, did not face a single break point in the final against France’s world No.90 Rezai, who was looking for her first WTA Tour title.

Davenport's astonishing performance shows that she could be a major threat at the first Grand Slam of the season, the Australian Open, which starts January 14.

BTW: Davenport improved her percentage of wins in singles to 79.4 percent — 792 wins in 918 matches — the best winning percentage in WTA history. (sources: BBC, ESPN, photo via: WTA World)

Lindsay Davenport reaches ASB Classic final

Lindsay DavenportLindsay Davenport reached her third final in four tournaments since her comeback with a 6-4 6-3 victory over sixth seed Tamira Paszek at the ASB Classic in Auckland, New Zealand.

Note that this was Davenport’s 17th win out of 18 matches since her return. Impressive! And now she’s only one match away from winning her 54th career title.

In the final, Davenport will meet unseeded Aravane Rezai of France, who ended the surprise run of home wildcard Marina Erakovic 6-3 7-5. (source: Reuters, photo: Yellowballin’)

Marina Erakovic upsets Vera Zvonareva in Auckland

Marina ErakovicNew Zealand’s Marina Erakovic staged a fantastic upset at her home tournament ASB Classic by beating top seed and last year’s finalist Vera Zvonareva.

It is a really big win for the world No.153 who won the match in the third set tie-break and in that way reached the ASB Classic semifinals. I watched the match a little bit on the internet, and Erakovic, as well as the crowd, were ecstatic, and quite shocked.

Final score: 63 26 76(5)

For more details read R.C. French’s report. He’s a New Zealander who watched the match live! (photo via The New Zealand Herald)


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