Post-match statistical overview of Clijsters vs. Wozniacki quarterfinal

Yesterday our loyal contributor Omair did a statistical analysis of the Australian Open quarterfinal between Kim Clijsters and Caroline Wozniacki, and the numbers spoke in Wozniacki's favor. Despite that, gut feeling told Omair that the Dane was more likely to lose and that's what happened. Now, let's see Omair's post-match review of the 6-3 7-6(4) match.

Going into today's match Wozniacki had a lot on the line, she had a lot of questions to answer, a lot of critics who she wanted to silence by winning this match. Wozniacki's No.1 ranking was on the line, her status as No.1 WTA player was under question, her ability to win a major was what she was seeking answer to when she took the Rod Laver Arena to face Kim Clijsters for a spot in the semifinals. She wanted a revenge, for it was Clijsters who had denied Wozniacki her first major in the 2009 US Open final, it was Clijsters who denied Wozniacki her first year-end Championships when she beat the Dane in the final in 2010, it was Clijsters who dethroned Wozniacki from the top spot for a week in 2011.

Wozniacki had a lot of reasons to be confident when she entered the Rod Laver Arena. There were questions surrounding Clijsters' ankle, which she twisted badly in her previous match, her performance so far at the Aussie Open was cleaner as compared to Clijsters' as per the stats, she had not lost a set while entering into the match, as against Clijsters who lost a set in her previous match to Li Na. Clijsters had never beaten a reigning No.1 at a Grand Slam in her previous five encounters at Grand Slams with the then reigning No.1s. But it all could not help Wozniacki and it all could not stop Clijsters from crushing the world No.1 to book a semifinal spot.

Going into today's match Clijsters was on a mission, since she had already announced that this would be the last Australian Open of her career. She wanted to end it in style, and yes she did it in style to book herself a semifinal spot against the on-fire Victoria Azarenka. She got her first win over a reigning No.1 in a Grand Slam, and did that in authoratative way by defeating Wozniacki in straight sets. What did Clijsters do to emerge as the winner, when the numbers were in Wozniacki's favour? Let us compare the stats of their quarterfinal encounter with the stats of their previous four matches that earned them the quarterfinal spot.

Wozniacki entered the match as the cleaner player, but Clijsters came out of the match as a winner and a cleaner player. Here is a comparison of Wozniacki's stats of the first four matches and her quarterfinal encounter:

Wozniacki's first serve percentage dropped dramatically as compared to her first four matches, as did her winning percentage on those first serves. She entered the match with a positive differential of winners and unforced errors, but she left the match with a whopping negative 13 differential. I think the table speaks in itself as to why Wozniacki lost. Read more »

Numbers speak in Wozniacki's favor for the Australian Open quarterfinal against Clijsters

Dear readers, our now already famous stats expert Omair couldn't resist the urge and found time in his busy schedule to analyse the upcoming Australian Open quarterfinal between Kim Clijsters and Caroline Wozniacki. Numbers speak in Wozniacki's favor, but is everything in numbers? Let's see if we can conclude something.

There are so many things you plan on doing, but you you never get to complete them. That is what happened with me, when I had planned on making a probability analysis for the Australian Open 2012, it never got complete and then I got heck of busy. Being an audit trainee no doubt has its perks of excessive late sittings and no weekends, but I just could not resist my urge to analyse the Australian Open quarterfinals, using the performance of the quarterfinalists so far in the tournament. I will be using the stats to look into the quarterfinal showing, as to who has a better shot at making the semis. Let's first analyse Kim Clijsters and Caroline Wozniacki.

Kim got her ankle twisted in her fourth round epic battle against Li Na. Wozniacki won't get a better chance than this to avenge her previous losses to the former world No. 1, after all it was Clijsters who denied Wozniacki the taste of her first major when she beat the Dane in the US Open final in 2009.

Wozniacki has yet to lose a set in this tournament, while Clijsters has already lost one to Li, and was on the brink of defeat in straight sets but turned it around to emerge as a winner. Thousand dollar questions are: Will Clijsters' ankle hold to let her complete in the last Australian Open of her career? Will Clijsters have enough in tank to battle past Wozniacki who has no doubt the best defensive skills at the moment?

Clijsters is 2-0 against Wozniacki, but their last meeting at the year-end Championships in 2010 went the distance. Let us have a look at what the numbers say when we see each player's first four matches at the Aussie Open 2012:

Wozniacki has +8% advantage in the first serves, but what is important is that although Wozniacki has higher 1st serve percentage, Clijsters' 1st serve winning percentage is much higher than Wozniacki's, but so are her double faults. Clijsters has been serving 4+ double faults on average in each match so far, which means losing her serve at least once in each match by only double faults.

What is more worrying is Clijsters' ratio of winners and unforced errors. If you look at the number of winners, Wozniacki is not far behind, but if you look at the number of unforced errors Wozniacki comes out as a cleaner one by a huge margin. Clijsters has a differential of negative 24, whereas Wozniacki has a positive differential of 4. Break point conversion rate, receiving points won percentage again go in Wozniacki's favour. The department where Wozniacki lags is the points won at net. While Clijsters has lost only one point out of her 18 net trips (95%), Wozniacki managed to win only 68% of her net trips. Read more »

Clijsters advances to Australian Open quarterfinals with four match points saved against Li

The fourth round of the Australian Open feautred a rematch of last year's final and the outcome was the same – Kim Clijsters defeated Li Na. The score 4-6 7-6(6) 6-4 took the Belgian to the quarterfinals, but within those numbers hide four match points, a painful ankle injury at 3-3 in the first set and a gruelling fight of both players.

With her foot thickly wrapped and 2-6 in the second set tiebreak, Clijsters started her big comeback by winning six points in a row to take the match to the third set, which she opened with a 4-0 lead. Li then slowly recovered to 5-4 down, but it was Clijsters who closed out the match to her advantage.

After the victory, the Belgian winner of four Grand Slam titles said that it was one of her best comebacks, while the disappointed Li can live off the number of matches she won in January, a great improvement from her horrible second half of 2011.  Read more »

Australian Open 2012 fashion – the best of Nike, Adidas, Fila

Besides doing yearly fashion retrospections for specific WTA players, Women's Tennis Blog is famous for reviewing outfits for every Grand Slam. The Australian Open is entering its second week and the time is just right for us to have a closer look at what the players are wearing. Last year Venus Williams grabbed all the attention with her EleVen designs, but the American is sadly absent this time. In 2012 the spotlight is more evenly distributed and brands such as Nike, Adidas and Fila are leading the pack.

Caroline Wozniacki’s love life is booming, at least its online representation suggests that, and her fashion designer Stella McCartney opted for the color of passion for the world No.1’s Australian Open. Wozniacki accessorized the red dress with a heart-shaped Danish flag pendant that her boyfriend Rory McIlroy gave her for Christmas.

Adidas Adizero used a shade of red for their predominantly peach dress worn by Ana Ivanovic, Daniela Hantuchova and Sorana Cirstea.

Serena Williams is wearing a blue Nike dress with wide tank straps and pleated bottom.

Read more »

Predictions for 2012 year-end WTA Top 10, best foreteller wins an autograph

The 2012 has gained its full swing with the Australian Open, and our loyal contributor and reader John Bolan would like to share his predictions of how the Top 10 rankings will look like at the end of the season. Don't forget to share your Top 10 picks in the comments, as John will send the person whose predictions turn out to be the closest to the actual 2012 year-end Top 10 a picture with an autograph of a Top 10 player. Nice incentive! ;)

Once again, it is time to pick the Top 10 players in the order they will finish on December 31, 2012. We have had a few weeks to observe which players have played well this year. Logic, injuries and where the players finished for 2011 are the main criteria used to make these picks.

TOP 10 FOR 2012
1. Victoria Azarenka
2. Maria Sharapova
3. Kim Clijsters
4. Serena Williams
5. Petra Kvitova
6. Caroline Wozniacki
7. Agnieszka Radwanska
8. Vera Zvonareva
9. Li Na
10. Sabine Lisicki

My pick for number 1 in 2012 is Victoria Azarenka (I also picked Victoria for number 1 in 2011). She squeaked by Maria Sharapova for third place last year, but is definitely a rising young star whose time has come. Maria is my pick for the runner-up spot – number 2. Let’s hope she stays healthy for the remainder of the year.

Three players who have already been injured this year are Kim Clijsters, Serena Williams and Andrea Petkovic. Do we take a chance and put any of them in the Top 10? Kim is my #3 pick and Serena #4. Although Andrea is the most sensational player in women’s tennis, she is seriously injured and will miss months on the tour in 2012. Read more »


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